Trading Success Ep 5

Chris: Good morning, Cam. Welcome back to episode five of trading success. How are you?

Cam: Good. Thanks, Chris. How are you going?

Chris: Very well, very well. The sun is out all weekend. It was beautiful.

Cam: Yeah, was a beautiful weekend, the weather has been magnificent here on the Coast. Very fortunate, very blessed.

But there’s been a lot to digest this morning. It’s been very active weekend, there’s been so much going on in the world, a lot of things happening at the moment. It’s it’s very important right now to have a plan, have a level head, not get too emotional, not get too caught up in what’s going on. As a trader, you need to make sure you’ve got a good strategy, and you follow your plan. It’s very important not to get too caught up in the emotion of things. That’s it’s hard to do sometimes, but you have to compartmentalise all that stuff and just focus on what you do best.

So the most important thing is to be informed, you know, what’s happening in the world in terms of news, and how that can affect the markets is very important. So it’s been a very crazy weekend. Let’s go through some of the things that have occurred over the weekend. I haven’t gone into too much detail, myself, I haven’t researched too much about what’s going on. All I’ve heard from the mainstream media is the Iran attacks on Israel. I don’t know what the fallout will be from that. But we did know that things were starting to escalate.

When we spoke about gold, I think in episode three or two, we spoke about gold and silver. We could see how that gold and silver price had been appreciating over the last couple of months. So there was clearly some inside information that a war was going to be starting out, things had been building up in the Middle East. Obviously, with Russia and Ukraine going on, Taiwan and China, there’s a lot of conflict going on. So that’s one of the things to know if you if you’re new to economics, that’s one of the things that there’s not many consistent things, or correlations that you can make in the financial markets because things can change so quickly, and you can’t rely on, or have a bias about something’s going to affect the markets in this way. But we do know from history, that whenever there’s wars, money goes into the gold market, it’s just happens over and over again. So it is a safe haven when there’s when there’s fear.

We’ll go into the charts, but we’ve seen gold on the futures hit. It’s gone over 2400, and I think it hit 2450 this morning, so it spiked up and it’s sort of come back but gold is we’ve been focusing on gold. We had a clear intention on why we wanted to focus on the gold market over the last couple of weeks was we knew something was going on. So that was a really strong indicator that something was going to happen. So yeah, it’s been good that we’ve narrowed in on that. We’ve seen something happen in the markets. And that’s what trading is all about making money in the markets is all that taking advantage of change. And when we saw the gold markets and saw market breakout, there was some really good opportunities for some long trades in those markets.

What else has been happening this week? we’ve got earnings, and earnings season has started. So last week’s earnings a little bit quiet. There’s only a few major banks reported last week. The results were were pretty good for the banks. There was one quote here that I read this morning that said all banks reported better than expected results last week boosting expected earnings growth. However, the net interest income guidance, which is early some lending was generally not as good as hoped. So this set the banks lower. So we’ll go into the charts and we’ll see how the banks have such a strong weighting on the s&p 500 index.

So we saw the s&p 500 come off a little bit last week. So this week, who do we have reporting? We’ve got once again the banks early this week, and then we’ve got some of the tech companies coming out. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, we’ve got a one of the largest real estate investment trusts coming out Blackstone on Thursday, and we’ve got Netflix also coming out on Thursday as well. So there’s some of the the bigger companies that are reporting and then the following weeks we have more reporting, over the next 7 weeks, we’re going to have lots of reports coming out. So that’s going to add a bit of spice to the markets So interesting times.

Chris: We’ll see now, towards the end of last week, the US inflation and FOMC came out pretty much kicking down the road any interest rate cuts from sort of June to September.

Cam: Yeah so, Interest rate cuts will booey, the market will generally lift the market and give a great support that delaying that could just slow the market activity around. So either we’re going to see some ranging activity, we talked about that correction that we could see, we’ve sort of started to see the start of it. But the market is still in a bit of a range at the moment.

So yeah, let’s have a look at charts quickly, then see where we can see that some opportunities. So let’s first of all look at the gold because that’s probably the first one that we’ve been talking about this morning.

So this is the gold chart, this was when we started looking at gold. back a couple of weeks ago, we were seeing some interest in this rally. And that’s why we started to see that. And then we’ve seen it move up to this morning, here, almost 2450. On Friday, it closed over 2400 on the gold futures. So today’s been a very volatile day. A $100 move in one day is hugely volatile.

The market looks like it’s spiked up, and then it’s sold down. So a little bit of selling on the news, selling on the fact. So we knew something suspicious in the world was occurring when we see gold going up like this. There’s generally two safe havens.

So that was gold. Let’s have a look at the S&P 500. Now we spoke about the S&P 500 earning season a lot of the banks reporting or some of the major banks reporting last week. So you see Friday, we had a bit of a dip down on Friday. We’ve we’ve been speaking about this 5300 level acting as resistance and the markets been holding under that 5300 level for the last two weeks.

It was a very volatile week, last week, like the market went down, went up and down and it was really volatile. The market moved from, like this particular day here. Now this is a great lesson here. We talk about balance, balance rules here. So I’ll just quickly give you a rundown here and what what balance rules are. So you can see this market is clearly within this day, this big day here, the markets stuck inside this day. For 1,2,3,4,5. They broke out on Friday, under that day. So we broken out of this balance temporarily.

Now, what’s really important is we want to see the market either continue to go down lower now and the key levels on this chart, pretty much where this market has pulled back to here, back around 5127. I’ve got it marked there on the chart. Also there’s a level there as well, which is important also is around that 5168, around that level there, you can see the market bounced off that level this morning.

So there’s a couple of key support levels that the market will probably find some support. So I think looking at that low down here is important. Then there’s this double bottom down here are really key support levels in the market. But one thing thing that happened last week was really interesting was, you can see we had this tiny little Inside Day, then the next day, we tested the high of the Inside Day. And then we tested the low, but we broke inside it. So still very much a balanced type trading day. Then on this particular day, you see the market got outside the high. Now, what with balance rules are, you want to see the market for to break out of these these inside outside days, you want to see the market for it to see a rally, you want to see the market get above it and hold, and then you’re likely going to see the market continue.

Now, on this particular day, the market went up failed. And if it can’t hold above that prior high, there’s a very high probability that the market is going to go down and test the low. And that’s kind of what we got. All right, we tested the low we actually closed outside. And then you looked at the the this particular day here, there was a huge volatile day, you look at the next day, which was Thursday, you’re going to see okay, are we going to see continuation of this short? Is this market going to go down and, and sell off really hard? And clean up this gap down here? Is it is it still gap, this imbalance owned down here, the market still hasn’t cleaned up.

So the market came down, it would attract a lot of people going short down here, trading a breakout, and then it just rallied all day all the way back up, it didn’t get back up to the high which was interesting, which is a fairly weakest sign. But it it couldn’t close outside of that, that low there. And then on the Friday the market, it basically just rallied all the way down with not rallied sold off all the way down. And it tested that, that area of balance down there. So really, a lot of it’s going to depend on earnings. And news, what this market is going to do this week, but we know we’ve got some support levels down here. So they’re their levels on watching the market come down here, you know, if we can break down under this, get back into this into this imbalance zone and continue to the downside. And that will be a really nice short opportunity. But we just got to be mindful of these these lows down through here at 5127. So I think we could see some, we could see some bearish activity. But you know, when the market is basically still really it’s, it’s still in this sort of, sort of grinding sort of down, down-ish sort of move is sort of grinding correction. So we can easily continue back up here. Once again, this is why you have to really look at your small timeframes, like use your big charts for some key support and resistance levels.

But as day traders are smaller timeframes are really going to give us some opportunities. But I think we’re going to see, once again, we’re going to see volatility and increased volumes in the market at the moment. So that’s something to look out for. And the next one is our s&p 500, NASDAQ, I should say, NASDAQ. So here’s our NASDAQ. Now I’ve got marked up 18,000 Down here, which has been support down here in the past, we still haven’t filled in this imbalance zone down here. So I think we may see a test of 18,000 down here. If we can close below 18,000, then I think the market will go to the downside. If we can’t get down below 18,000 And we see a rally then we could easily rally back up to 18,500 and beyond. So once again, news, earnings results and also just following what’s happening. War wise how the markets are reacting to that will be important.

Alright, so NASDAQ is sort of following same lead with the s&p 500. And the final one I want to show is the Bitcoin because Bitcoin is you know, really interesting situation. There has been so much hype about Bitcoin. And that’s going to rally and it’s going to do all this all these wonderful things. And we are very, very close to this having coming up very, very soon. Yeah, but this weekend, the market, it looked like it would look like this was a four hour chart. Okay. So it looked like the market was going to break out and go long. It looks like we’ve trapped a few late players, alright, because the market got over 72,000 which was a really key resistance level. But this is an important thing about support and resistance just because the market breaks a key resistance level. Say 70,000 doesn’t mean we’re going to continue to the upside straightaway. The market needs to get above those levels and show support, right show acceptance, more buying continuing. So the market, I think, just trapped a few players here. So the market has gone. It looks like it’s a little bit short.

All right, and there could be some leveraged shorts in the market. So the key levels right now are down here around this, obviously 64 It looks like we bounced off 64 This morning. 62 is a really important level in the market. But this market is definitely in what we call a range. However, there’s lots of hype, and we’re expecting this big breakout and let’s move potentially up to 880 1000 is one level 78,000 80,000 ad 2000. Some levels I’m hearing this market could could get to leading into the halving, which is we know a such a big, momentous occasion for Bitcoin and the supply and demand factor, which will obviously we’re looking at potential decrease in supply due to the Harvey, therefore prices should go up.

So a lot of expectation about Bitcoin rallying, and going to these exceptional prices. But once again, I think this is the advantage of being a day trader is because you can trade all of these moves, you could, you can see that the market was failing at 72 here, and then go right, there’s no acceptance at 72. This is not really the pop yet, look for a short opportunity under 72. And you can see what happened on the weekend, the market sold off quite hard down to around about the 64,000 level. So below 64,000. I believe in the spot price, I think it maybe got down to 60 I think spot price might have got down to 63 or so was the lowest so we’ve tested these lows. So you know, this market is clearly in this range right now. So there’s some great defined opportunities, short term opportunities to trade this market long off these off these low prices. If we’re going to get this big rally coming into the into the halving, I think this is a really good opportunity where smart money will be buying up these these retracement lows. So that’s a great market to follow as well at the moment, a lot of volatility.

So I think, Chris, really exciting times right now in the markets, great opportunities all around. Once again, don’t get caught up with looking at too many markets. Focus on the market that you love best and that you know best. But there’s there’s going to be so much movement in the markets that you’re focusing on. You don’t need to go too far to make good, good profit out of the market.

Chris: Yeah, and there’s a lot a lot of moving parts at the moment. And as you say, it’ll affect all markets for for different reasons. So yeah, being vigilant and trading your plan is ideal.

Absolutely. So yeah, thanks, Chris. Thanks, everyone for viewing and make sure you like what we do and and subscribe to this channel, and we’ll give you some really good updates. And we’d like reviewing what happened, you know, after these, these updates that were given these week aheads, we like reviewing what occurred so that you can actually see what we’re, we’re doing actually works and can give you some really good. Give me great information here. Really well researched information.

Chris: we look forward to reviewing this week. Next Monday. See what happens in a crazy week in the markets.

Cam: Yep. Good luck, guys. Have fun and enjoy.

Chris: Excellent. Thank you Cen.

Cam: Thanks, Chris, Bye, Mate.

To listen to more of “Successful Trading with Cam Buchanan” you can find the series on Spotify, and you can also find all of the episodes of Successful Trading with Cam Buchanan on YouTube.