Trading Success Ep 6

Chris: Hello Cam, welcome back. How are you?

Cam: Oh, Hi, Chris. Good. Had a big weekend. We just finished our three day Training Business School program down at Twee Heads. It was an awesome program and feeling a little tired. But very excited about this week’s trading. There is going to be some nice opportunities again, I think.

Chris: Yeah, there’s been a lot of movement I’ve seen towards the back in the last week and a lot of geopolitical news that we spoke about last week, which was sort of happening over the weekend as well.

Cam: Yes. So Friday was a big drop, I think with those airstrikes. Obviously, Iran trying to attack Israel and Israel retaliating. Because of this, this U.N. vote, America decided not to vote for Palestine to be included in the U.N. So that caused a bit of tit for tat, and this is what’s being reported. It’s hard to know exactly what’s going on. But obviously, you just got to follow what’s happening in the markets in terms of the reaction.

Chris: Plenty of volatility. As we say, whenever there’s bad news or world incidents, it just creates volatility.

Cam: That’s right, and we could see over the last few weeks, there was something building because gold and silver just started to rally over the last, probably two months, particularly gold was starting to show some signs of strength for ages, as we know, gold can have these big consolidation periods, and then finally broke out. We saw that gold did a breakout, then it consolidated then it broke out again. So on Friday, when we had those airstrikes, I think it hit 2450 on the futures, then it’s sort of come back into a balanced zone now. So we’ll go into the chart, shall we have a look and see what what opportunities we’ve got in the markets?

So let’s look at gold. This is the gold daily chart. So this was the rally that we’ve been talking about Chris, coming out of the consolidation and rallying above 2200. Then rallying up to hit that all time high at 2000, almost 2450, almost touched in. So you can see now we’re in this balance range. So obviously, the markets just really rotating between the major fibs 7623 38. And you can see there’s a lot of acceptance around the 50%. So yeah, it’s just one of those situations of I think you hear this thing in trading a lot. You buy the rumor, sell the fact.

So there was, I think we said last week, there was some inside information as to big players know what’s going on in the world. It looks like there was some borrowing in the gold market. We know, China’s buying gold heavily and storing gold heavily. We saw, I think released last week, the Zimbabwe dollar, what I read was, Zimbabwe is a very wealthy country, a lot of resources. Anyway, they had a large amount of debt to, I think, the World Bank and also to China. So I think China took out a lot of that debt. Then China has basically put a lot of money into their infrastructure. You know, building roads, bridges, power, water systems, all sorts of things.

So China are holding a lot of these African countries that they made a big play on Zimbabwe, basically just wiping out all of the debt that they had to China. And they I think they’re in experimentation for this. The Zeke just got released, which is the Zimbabwe dollar, a new dollar, which is backed by gold. So it looks like you know that the BRICS nations where there’s been talks, the BRICS nations are all about buying or using the currencies backed by gold or converting or currencies backed by gold. So it’s an interesting movement, I think to see that because there’s been a lot of talk about gold backed currencies. So yeah, just interesting thing to watch to see how that plays out. But it looks like to me it’s a very much a testing ground. For China, and that system.

Chris: I think it’s something worth googling for people; the BRICS scenario. I started looking into it myself a few weeks ago. And it’s just interesting. It’s obviously not going to happen overnight. But it’s interesting that these countries are looking to get away from the US dollar and look for something else.

Cam: Yeah, and as we know, China, they’re good planners, they know what they’re doing. Obviously, they’ve had this plan for many, many years, like you’ve seen on the internet, there’s been stories of China building, basically ghost towns, they’re building cities, and infrastructure, massive infrastructure in Africa.

They see Africa as a big play, particularly for resources. So they’re definitely smart planners, and we can learn a lot from the Chinese. So that’s what the gold situation is so in the short term, it’s just going into consolidation. A lot of that speculative buying, there’s obviously some profit taking happening now, and maybe some accumulation happening right now, as well. The markets in this in this balance zone, and obviously, we could break higher up to, 3000, I think they’re talking about 3000 being the price that it’s going to going to get there at some point in the next couple of years.

I’ve been reading a lot of articles recently about, we’re in this age of turbulence. Astrologically, we’re in a lot of turbulence as well, on that level. But we’re seeing it play out in these wars and all this madness going on around the world.

So that’s gold, in terms of the daily chart. Silver’s doing very similar as well, if we look at the silver futures market. We look at the Silver’s mutual futures market, you see it’s in balance. So we’re basically within this 123456 Day balance. So it really didn’t do much on Friday with the news, gold reacted more heavily than silver.

So that’s that, let’s look at the indexes, which is where we spend most of our time, and I’ll see where I can find the the monthly chart. So, Chris, last week we talked about those key ranges, we talked about that monthly low being 18,000. That was a very key level we were looking for, when the market tends to hit these monthly lows they tend to either break hard, or they bounce often quite strongly. We got a very strong break on that last week.

If we look at the daily chart, so this is where we were trading today being Monday, through Friday, we had the big drop down, and the market has been steadily just dropping all week. Monday was the breakout that we had. That was that zone we were watching 18,000. You’ll see once we broke out of 18,000; Interesting how markets turn off these pivot points came back to that significant level came off 18,000 and just basically trended down. In the in the short term on these higher timeframes. We are in a downtrend now. You can see that the trend indicators flipped and we are in a downtrend.

So, what’s the market going to do? Are we going to continue in this downtrend on these high timeframes are we going to go back into a balance range? So we’ll see what happens early in the week, but this is daily bars a really important daily bar to to frame up I’d probably run a Fib over the prior day anyway, just to give you some reference points if it’s retracing.

But it looks like it’s the market may want to try and retrace but markets tend to move from trends into ranges and then back into a trend. So are we going to see a week of accumulation, consolidation? Or are we going to see a continuation of this downtrend? I guess you’ve still got to back the downtrend at the moment. But this afternoon leading into The European opening kind of nice, a nice move to the upside. Which is, I think it’s been good. I think I’ve got a few ticks on along earlier. But what else have we got?

So the S&P 500 is looking very similar. We broke that monthly level around that 5127 level that we mentioned last week. Very similar to the NASDAQ, the markets just kept continuing to the downside, that was the year that’s the current. So that’s the current chart we’re in right now or the current daily chart. So this is the the 24 hour data. You can see we’re back up holding we’re back above that 5000 level, which is a really key price level, just a very well known area. Can we continue to go down low here, of course, there’s obviously a bit of fear around so there’s any more escalation with the Middle East situation that we’re going to see probably some more selling off, you know, things stabilized and the market might might rebalance.

We’ve also got news this week. Not a lot of news in terms of on the Forex factory. We do have something a quick look here. We do have on Tuesday, in the US we have manufacturing news coming out at 11:45. I think on Thursday is the next lot of news, we have advanced GDP and unemployment claims Thursday night 10:30. So we’re in the pre market. Then on Friday night, we’ve got core PCE price index at 10:30 as well. So there’s a little bit of Red Flag News. Once again, we are in earnings season as well, Chris. So we’ve got this week, we’ve got some big players on the tech space, which are reporting.

We’ve got Tesla reporting to on Tuesday from the US. We’ve also got Meta, which is Facebook, we’ve also got the CME Group reporting as well, if anyone’s interested, we’ve got Boeing. We’ve also got we’ve also got some other big tech companies, Intel, Microsoft, and Google also reporting on Thursday. Then we’ve got some oil companies on Friday, as well. Oil is has not hit 85 I believe, and it’s down buffering at 82. So it hasn’t done a huge amount.

Oil’s had a good run, though, recently, but it’s sort of pulled back a little bit at the moment. But yes, that’s pretty much the main news this week. So we’ve got a couple of big tech companies that may move things around a little bit as well, if their reports are good. But yeah, look, that’s the great thing about day trading, right, we can trade in either direction. There was some very good opportunities last week with those shorts. But we found that the market moved typically in the US time, it was a big movement in the US. In Asia, that was a big move as well. When those markets move, they tend to move on, you know, we had a big liquidity break where there was a lot of selling in the markets and big players obviously dumping a lot of contracts.

But, let’s see if we get bigger players dumping contracts. I don’t know how big the sell off was last week in terms of players actually dumping contracts; but if we get some bigger institutions dumping contracts, that could create a larger correction. But at this stage, I haven’t seen any really big players dumping positions at the moment that there has been obviously some decent selling off last week, as we can see in terms of volume. There was some larger than normal volumes last week in the market. We saw that nice correction on the major indexes.

So great opportunities in the market. We’re definitely out of balance at the moment, and that’s where traders can make very big money when markets are moving out of balance. However, I think the market is going to rebalance this week. So I think run a fib over that this last this last daily candle Friday just to see and get some moves against that tonight. And on a weekly chart as well. You know, maybe have a look and run a fib over the weekly as well. Just to see that could be also an important level but we’re definitely swinging down low on the weekly chart. So we are in a downtrend on this weekly chart, and we’re swinging down so Let’s see what happens guys this week should be good. Should be some good opportunities.

Chris: A lot of news being announced and a lot of earnings being released no doubt they’ll be movement. Definitely for sure.

Cam: Yeah, look, traders love volatility and this is a very important time to be be trading or sharpening up your skills and really getting into it, but there’s been some great results being posted. I think I think it’s gonna be another good week and another good weekend movement. So stay safe once again, guys, just watch out your PVIs have been fairly high volatility has been high. So just make sure you’re you’re trading with the right number of contracts and the trade with the right risk profile. But stay safe and have a great week everyone.

Chris: Thanks again.

Cam: Thanks, Chris. We’ll see you next week. Bye

To listen to more of “Successful Trading with Cam Buchanan” you can find the series on Spotify, and you can also find all of the episodes of Successful Trading with Cam Buchanan on YouTube.